THE (REAL) TRUTH
ABOUT COMET LEE

July 4, 1999

A MILLENNIUM GROUP SPECIAL REPORT
By Colonel James B. Ervin (Researcher)
Earl L. Crockett (Comments Editor)

THE TRUTH IN SCIENCE TEAM
Alexey Dmitriev, Gary D. Goodwin, Ray Ward,
Hal Blondell, Chuck Shramek, Wayne Moody


The following paper is a rebuttal to the recent opinions* and constantly evolving statements made on the "Comet Observation Home Page"**, as well as numerous other websites and newsgroup forums.

{* "The Daily Diffs"}
{See:
http://www.dailydiffs.com/dhi00zuc.htm}

{** "Comet Observation Home Page"}
{See:
http://encke.jpl.nasa.gov/}

Charles S. Morris' "Comet Observation Home Page" statement

*****************

The Truth About Comet Lee

There have been some wild statements made about Comet Lee [officially known as C/1999H1 (Lee)]. These are simply bogus, false statements by people who must have some agenda other than the truth. Given below is the truth...

1. o Comet Lee's orbit is not erratic. It is well-known. The comet will not hit the Earth or come any place close to it. This also means that debris or an asteroid associated with the comet could not endanger the Earth. Such "debris" would be left in the comet's orbit and would basically follow the orbit. If the comet's orbit doesn't intersect the Earth's orbit (and it doesn't), it is not possible for debris to hit the Earth. The closest the comet will come to the Earth is about 77 million miles (the Sun is 93 million miles from Earth) at the end of September 1999. An orbital diagram is posted below...see for yourself.

2. o Comet Lee (or any comet) will not cause coronal mass ejection's. And Comet Lee's orbit is not affected by them.

3. o The comet is not expected to become bright. It is not abnormally bright nor is it brightening at an unusual rate. In fact, it is not expected to become a naked-eye object. It is currently near its peak brightness. [Someone has quoted the parameter "n", which indicates the rate of a comet's brightening with respect to its distance from the Sun, as being 5.4 for Comet Lee. This, they say, is evidence that my statement above is incorrect. The fact is that values of n typically range from 2.5 to 6 for long period comets. Some short period comets have much higher values. I stand by my statement that Comet Lee's brightness or variation in brightness is not unusual. I base this on 30-years of analyzing comet light curves.]

It seems every time we have a modestly bright comet, someone or group or tabloid will claim that the comet is a threat to the Earth, has a spaceship traveling next to it or some other nonsense. They get on the radio and call themselves "scientists." To them, those of us that provide legitimate information on comets are obviously part of some grand conspiracy. If you are one that believes the nonsense that these people promote, that is certainly your right. However, remember their predictions. When they do not come true...and none of them came true with Comet Hale-Bopp...perhaps next time you will not be so willing to believe the pseudo-scientific predictions they make.

Charles S. Morris

***********************

"THE REBUTTAL"

Opening Statement:

Some would have you believe that the scientific method (as it applies to the study of celestial mechanics) is solely limited to the International Astronomical Union (IAU), NASA/JPL, and others whose astronomical research is funded primarily by the government, and/or special interest groups within the private sector. This assertion is, quite simply, one of the greatest deceptions ever heaped upon the mind of man. "Scientific Truth" is not the bastion of any one particular segment of society. Those, like some NASA employees, who claim sole exclusive rights to legitimate science dishonor themselves, and the historical contributions of private independent researchers everywhere.

Comment:

"History has shown that fundamental changes to existing paradigms have always come from groups outside the existing "knowledge" establishment. The world is currently experiencing such a revolution in science. NASA's resistance to this change is no different than that exerted by the Church when Copernicus introduced his Sun-centered Solar System theory in the Middle Ages.

The reality of recent years is that there is a growing amount of direct, and indirect, scientific information that states loud and clear that comets couldn't possibly be "dirty snowballs". They are in fact a complex and very energetic interaction between an asteroid type rocky nucleus and the "solar capacitor" as detailed in my published theories. This growing reality will potentially have a domino effect on all theories that are based on the official NASA sanctioned Big Bang cosmology; which are the only ones that receive government funding. Keep in mind that the agencies that support these scientific theories (that have been slowly dying over the last thirty years) are like any other government bureaucracy; justifying another year of funding is much more important than establishing the truth.

In addition, the once vaunted and highly respected "peer review" system of scientific journals and academia is no longer a place for the honest pursuit of truth. Instead it has become an unholy alliance of government employed and funded scientists who use the process as a means of maintaining their monopoly on funding, and on the use of exotic space based equipment (that you and I have paid for), and the data therefrom. And when they conduct these so called "peer review" sessions deep in the high security bowels of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, as they are all done, they never have to face public criticism. Thank God for the Internet!"

********************

POINT:

1. (A): Comet Lee's orbit is not erratic. It is well-known.

COUNTER-POINT:

1. (A): No one at The Millennium Group (TMG) has characterized Comet Lee as having an erratic orbit. However, we have said that this comet has experienced erratic (unexpected) brightening*, and that there are remarkable variance's in the ephemeris (orbital) plots for C/1999 H1 (Lee), as released by the IAU and NASA/JPL as well as numerous Japanese and Southern Hemisphere Observatories. (See Counter-Point 3 Below *)

*****************

( Inter-Group E-mail )

Subject: Orbital hanky panky

Date: Sun, 06 Jun 1999 22:42:02 -0500

Guys:

" I have checked as many sources as I can and the orbits vary * so wildly that it is unreal. I bet this comet is moving all over the place, and is simply "fooling" the standard programs that are used to calculate orbits with the given number of sightings. They are all over the board on this, and it will need some very serious analysis to weed out the truth. This is truly a lawless comet, and with the erratic brightening happening it is certain to be far off course every day. This already says something about its internal composition, and I think Earl may be right that the mysterious sun flaring we have been scratching our heads about for the past 6 months just found its source in this comet. This could be a doozy! August is now looking like a time for the first possible trouble."

* {Refers to variance in the ephemeris (orbital) plots.}

See Page: http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/cometary/lee.htm

*********************

Quoting Earl Crockett:

Date: 10 June, 1999

SAY HELLO TO COMET C/1999 H1 (LEE)

-A GREAT AND MARVELOUS WORK-

A MILLENNIUM GROUP SPECIAL REPORT

Earl L. Crockett, Writer

{Excerpted from: Paragraph #2}

"Comet C/1999 H1 (Lee), (C/Lee), is not a periodic comet (such as Halley) nor is it a long-period comet (Hale-Bopp). In fact it really has no

"period" at all as it is coming almost straight into our Solar System from interstellar space. This means that C/Lee's "orbit" (period) can only be determined with any certainty (using official NASA approved gravity only celestial mechanics) after C/Lee has reached perihelion (crossed over the Sun), and exited down below the orbital path of the planets (the ecliptic). Gravity only celestial mechanics is the only method of orbital calculation allowed by the Big Bang cosmology priesthood of NASA. Consequently we are already observing a wild-shift in official orbital predictions; initially projecting C/Lee exiting beyond the orbit of Jupiter but, currently projecting the exit near Mars. Why is this happening in the short time span between its initial discovery in mid April 1999, and today some six weeks later? Possibly because all of the official orbital software, running on all of the official super-computers, by all the king's men, is based nice behaving little periodic comets like Halley. And to make things even worse the official dirty snowball comet theory states that comets are heated by the Sun and shed (sublimate) their icy dust thereby loosing mass: which in "good-old" Newtonian physics means that their orbits should expand outward rather than tighten inward. Guess what folks? That's not what is happening even at this very moment as C/Lee approaches."

See Page: http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/cometary/lee.htm

**********************

As to whether Comet Lee's orbit is well known depends entirely on whose version of the ephemeris you care to review, or believe. There are considerable inconsistency's to be found in the orbital elements of various ephemeris sites. This may be partially attributable to the differences between computer software programs used to calculate the comet's orbital ephemeris. However, it should be noted that Comet Lee's orbit began to fluctuate upon approaching our solar system from the south, a much more plasma rich area of interstellar space. Our plasma rich region of space is well known for its electrical effects on comets. Two recent examples are Shoemaker-Levy 9 and Hale Bopp. Nevertheless, there is a veritable Pandora's Box of less publicized interactions which can effect a comet's passage through this region. Some of these lesser known effects include: Ion Exchange, Plasma Induction, Mass Loading, and Solar Wind-Orbital Alteration. Consequently, it is not unreasonable to extrapolate that Comet Lee's orbit may have been influenced during its initial passage into the inner solar system by some or all of these factors thereby producing the multitude of inconsistent orbital ephemerides which have been noted between each group that has run the calculations.

Please compare the orbital (Ephemeride) elements posted at the following sites:

Link Pages:

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/Ephemerides/Comets/1999H1.html

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/mpec/J99/J99H06.html

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iauc/07100/07145.html

http://www.info.waseda.ac.jp/muraoka/members/seiichi/comet/catalog/1999H1/1999H1.html

http://home.wxs.nl/~ggilein/1999h1.html

Comments:

"One has to understand the implications of what we are saying about comets. We have never made the claim that Comet Lee (or any other comet) would impact Earth. But since this is the only possibility of damage to Earth from a comet defined as a "dirty snowball", it is the only thing that NASA scientists can, and/or will, talk about when they're asked if Comet "X" poses a threat to Earth. The reality is, however, that comets are not "dirty snowballs". They are instead highly electrical in nature, and do interact on an ongoing and continual basis with the Sun, and the Sun in turn interacts electrically with all the planets of our Solar System (Heliosphere), and the planets likewise with their moons. The electrical relationship between a comet, the Sun, and planet Earth, AT A DISTANCE, is what is important.

These interactions can greatly influence solar weather (output), and again in turn Earth climate and weather.

Additionally we have listed several other upcoming planet and comet alignments that have the potential to further "discharge the solar capacitor" causing both immediate and future problems here on Earth. We believe that Comet Lee has the possibility to electrically pump up the Sun's energy, just as the huge and powerful Comet Hale-Bopp did, resulting in the devastating all-time-record global weather disaster losses of life and property of 1997, and 1998. The confusion here for NASA scientists is that they are still trying to interpret our Solar System's functions based on seventeenth century gravitational theories. Consequently what we are saying at The Millennium Group makes little sense to them. So the NASA/NOAA government funded bunch are left with little else to do but to make up rather lame hair brain excuses such as El Nino, La Nina, the Greenhouse effect, and ozone holes to "explain" what they can't explain in a rational point A to point B, cause and effect, scientific manner."

POINT:

1. (B): The comet will not hit the Earth or come any place close to it.

COUNTER-POINT:

1. (B): Anyone who categorically asserts that Comet Lee will not strike the Earth, or that it will not pass anywhere near it, is stating opinion - not fact. No one, and this includes NASA/JPL, can accurately predict Comet Lee's post perihelion ephemeris because of the Sun's (early *) arrival into Solar Maximum. Remember, the ephemeris of C/1999 H1 (Lee) is not locked into stone, an alteration could occur if this comet is struck by a: CME, Solar Flare, Asteroid, Sungrazing Kreutz Fragment, or a host of other possibilities. This is the reality of the situation, and any person or any organization who tells you otherwise, is clearly shielding you from the truth. However, I do want to go on the record as stating one thing (loud and clear) right now. I am not predicting that Comet Lee's orbit will be altered during perihelion, I am simply stating that it is a possibility which must be given the full consideration it deserves, anything less would be grossly negligent.

Newest Version of Comet Lee Ephemeris:

Link Page: http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/Ephemerides/Comets/1999H1.html

Reference links on the effects of Solar Maximum:

Link Page: http://quark.plk.af.mil/news/98-21.html (*)

Link Page: http://www.sunspotcycle.com/

Link Page: http://www.nas.edu/ssb/maxch3.htm

Link Page: http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/

Link Page: http://www.got.net/~seasons/solar.html

Link Page: http://www.agu.org/GRL/articles/98GL50062/GL220W01.html

Link Page: http://www.explorezone.com/archives/99_03/09_ejections.htm

Link Page: http://fusedweb.pppl.gov/CPEP/Chart_pages/5.Plasmas/SolarWind.html

Note: For a quick look at Comet Lee's pre-plotted orbital ephemeris, please visit the Astroarts web page listed below. Run the orbital simulator forward through November 7, 1999, and it will give you a clear indication of this comets perihelion passage, as well as its' high solar (northern) passage over the Earth.

Link Page: http://www.astroarts.com/comets/1999/1999H1.html

POINT:

1.(C): This also means that debris or an asteroid associated with the comet could not endanger the Earth. Such "debris" would be left in the comet's orbit and would basically follow the orbit. If the comet's orbit doesn't intersect the Earth's orbit (and it doesn't), it is not possible for debris to hit the Earth.

COUNTER-POINT:

1. (C): Now, as regards any associative: Cometary, Asteroid, or Meteor debris which might be following Comet Lee. The arguments stated above can only hold true, if the comet's current ephemeris holds true. Since Comet Lee's post perihelion orbit can not be authenticated until early August, when the comet will exit occultation and solar glare, it is, in essence, much to early too gauge the potential risks of any cometary ejecta striking the Earth during the comet's passage.

Therefore, the question remains, could Comet Lee produce debris capable of impacting the Earth? The answer, unfortunately, is yes. The LEONID meteor showers (associated with Comet Temple-Tuttle) are a prime example of the dangers associated with cometary debris, as are the Perseid Meteor showers caused by Comet Swift-Tuttle. Thus - it should be clear - there are irrefutable (debris) risks associated with any near Earth cometary approach.

The HCN Factor:

If C/1999 H1 (Lee) were to eject a cometary fragment at the Earth, such an event could prove considerably more disastrous than, I myself, originally anticipated. Comet Lee, it seems, contains a high percentage of HCN or Hydrogen Cyanide, a highly explosive compound which is noted for its instability when mixed with oxygen. Therefore, should a large cometary fragment survive entry into the earth's atmosphere, its explosive yield could be far greater than any of the models run by Sandia.

Sandia Labs:

Link Page: http://sherpa.sandia.gov/planet-impact/asteroid/

Other Useful Sites:

Link Page: http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd7.html

Link Page: http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/

Here are some fact pages on HCN.

Link Page:

http://www.oshaslc.gov/SLTC/healthguidelines/hydrogencyanide/recognition.html

Link Page: http://encarta.msn.com/index/conciseindex/3F/03FE0000.htm

Link Page: http://www.indsci.com/hcn.html

The HCN Content of Comet Lee:

Link Page: http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iauc/07200/07203.html#Item1

Compare to: (DISCOVERY of HCN in HALE-BOPP)

Link Page: http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/faculty/jewitt/submm_hb_hcn.html

Comments:

"Very simply put, on September 6, 1999 (unless there is a deviation from original orbits posted on NASA and related web sites) Earth will cross directly through the orbital plane of Comet Lee; most probably at a considerable distance. Although the probability of ejecta or related smaller objects (or the comet nucleus itself) hitting earth is remote, only time will tell. But once again the entire point of the Plasma discharge comet model is the "action at a distance" properties of comets."

Please note the following cometary abstract excerpts in support of these ideas: CLICK HERE

Comments:

"The reality of materials coming to earth as an obvious result of cometary activity cannot be denied. The "dirty snowball" theorists believe that these are released from comets near the sun. However numerous comets, including Hale-Bopp, have been observed to undergo explosive events far beyond where the solar radiation is much more than a few candles worth of energy. The Plasma Discharge Comet Model shows that the streamers of meteors that trail in the comet orbit are attracted to the comet by short range "induced dipole" forces, and as we have seen with Hale-Bopp, comets can have related orbiting bodies that may become disassociated from the main comet nucleus for any one of many reasons. Be that as it may, reality is that the comet picture the folks at NASA are having to look squarely in the face is one that is far more complicated than they would even admit to a year ago. They have now publicly admitted to the "companion" of Hale Bopp."

POINT:

1.(D): The closest the comet will come to the Earth is about 77 million miles (the Sun is 93 million miles from Earth) at the end of September 1999. An orbital diagram is posted below...see for yourself.

COUNTER-POINT:

1.(D): Barring an unforeseen solar event, as covered in Counter-Point 1.(B), the above orbital assessment of Comet Lee's (current) earthbound approach is unquestionably correct. But the Sun's apparent untimely slide into Solar Maximum may represent a dramatic shift in the potential for plasma interactions between the Sun and Comet Lee thereby intensifying the probabilities of a post perihelion orbit change.

Note: The Dale Ireland orbital diagram, cited above, depicts C/1999 H1 (Lee) and the planets Mercury through Mars during Comet Lee's July 11, 1999 Perihelion. Consequently, this diagram does not actually represent Comet Lee's potential for a July-August ephemeris change. Only satellite monitoring can provide an early disclosure of orbital alteration. Ground based observatories will have to wait until the comet's exodus from behind the Sun on August 10/11 to note any substantial changes in its orbit. This aspect is very disturbing.


POINT:

2. Comet Lee (or any comet) will not cause coronal mass ejection's. And Comet Lee's orbit is not affected by them.

COUNTER-POINT:

Don't Be Fooled! CME's - Or Coronal Mass Ejection's, and Solar Flares, have pronounced effects upon the heliospheres and magnetospheres of planetoids and orbital satellites, including comets. Although in the case of comets, CME's, Solar Flares, and solar winds have a much more astonishing effect upon: Cometary Magnetospheres, Ionosphere's, Gas Ionization, Solar Orbits, Charge Exchange, Photoionization, and Shock Wave Propagation.

 

Comments:

"Here again the "Big Bang cosmology" cannot see the forest for the trees. When two comets passed through an existing solar flare last year one of the largest solar flares ever recorded (see below) followed as the comets ignited the solar surface by doing exactly what comets are supposed to do according to the Plasma Discharge Comet Model. Event after event have been recorded including a complete discharge of the planet Venus to the Sun. NASA scientists have categorically ignored these as coincidence."

There are more than 50 abstracts relating to CME - Comet Casual - Relationships on the following webpages:

Link Page: http://adswww.harvard.edu/ads_abstracts.html

Link Page: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect

NEW LINK: http://techreports.jpl.nasa.gov/index.html

Herewith, is a small sampling of the aforementioned abstract titles: CLICK HERE

See Also:

Comet Magnetosphere Info: http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/ssc/tutorial/magnetosphere.html

Comet Solar Wind Interactions: http://www.geophys.washington.edu/People/Students/matt/comet.html

Modeling of Cometary X-rays Caused by Solar Wind Minor Ions: http://hpcc.engin.umich.edu/HPCC/recent3/index.html


Other proofs: The following images show Sungrazing Comets diving into the Sun. These events are immediately followed by large CME events. Is this mere coincidence, or have these comets discharged the Solar Capacitor?

Link Page: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/gallery/LASCO/

These images which follow are "Courtesy of the SOHO/LASCO consortium. SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA."

Here are two more pages that show the Comet - CME - Casual Relationship:

Link Page: http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/comets/SOHO_sungrazers.html

Link Page: http://soi.stanford.edu/science/proposals/029.kosovichev/029/029.html

--------------------------------------

POINT:

3. The comet is not expected to become bright. It is not abnormally bright nor is it brightening at an unusual rate. In fact, it is not expected to become a naked-eye object. It is currently near its peak brightness. [Someone has quoted the parameter "n", which indicates the rate of a comet's brightening with respect to its distance from the Sun, as being 5.4 for Comet Lee. This, they say, is evidence that my statement above is incorrect. The fact is that values of n typically range from 2.5 to 6 for long period comets. Some short period comets have much higher values. I stand by my statement that Comet Lee's brightness or variation in brightness is not unusual. I base this on 30-years of analyzing comet light curves.]

COUNTER-POINT:

3. Here is what other astronomers have to say regarding the unexpected brightening of C/1999 H1 (Lee). It is worth noting, that some of the magnitude estimates posted below were derived utilizing the "Morris Method." Reference: ( Supportive statements on Comet Lee's unexpected brightening )

****Excerpt From: "Comet Observers' Forum:"****

Link Page: http://correio.cc.fc.ul.pt/~apereira/index.html

"While approaching the Sun from 1.7 to 1.06 AU, the intrinsic brightness showed a sustained increase following an inverse 5.4 power law in r. Such a high n value sustained over a significant range in r, while not unprecedented, is nevertheless unusual for a long-period comet. The light-curve hints at an increase in brightening pace around 1.5-1.4 AU, about the point where water sublimation can be expected to kick-in really vigorously, but 51 binocular observations covering the interval from r=1.7 to 1.06 AU, can be very well represented with the following inverse power law parameters: H0=6.07 (0.07); n=5.4 (0.2); sigma=0.19 mag.." ( See above link page for entire article )

****Excerpt From: The Japanese Site - "Weekly Information about Bright Comets"****

Link Page: http://www.info.waseda.ac.jp/muraoka/members/seiichi/comet/weekly/current.html

C/1999 H1 ( Lee ) Image: 1999 May 20 It brightened more rapidly than expected, so I updated the magnitude prediction. It will be unobservable soon. Then it will appear at dawn as 6 mag in late July. After that, it will fade while being higher. Date(TT) R.A. (2000) Decl. Delta r Elong. m1 Mot.(') p.a. Best Time(A, h)

June 12 8 24.01 13 21.9 1.294 0.916 44 6.3 44.7 344.4 21:00 (101, 8)

June 19 8 18.31 17 56.8 1.423 0.837 35 6.0 37.9 342.0 21:03 (110, 4)

( See above link page for entire article )

****Excerpt From: " Freelance Danish Astronomy Site"****

Link Page: http://www.syros.de/kometen/Archiv/C_1999 H1/99h12.htm

C/1999 H1 (Lee)

email by Jost Jahn at May, 28th: The comet is brighter than normal with a

<n> more than 5. Bino observers estimate 6.6 to 6.9 mag.

****Excerpt From: "Welkom bij de Nederlandse Kometen Vereniging"****

Link Page: http://home.wxs.nl/~ggilein/home.html

(CLICK HERE for sited ephemeris)

----------------------------------------

Other useful (Comet Magnitude) Resources:

Link Page: http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/icq/CometMags.html

Link Page: http://www.iac.es/galeria/mrk/recent_obs.html

Link Page: http://encke.jpl.nasa.gov/RecentObs.html#99H1

----------------------------------------

LAST WORDS:

It is time to put away the childish name calling which is frequently utilized by the so called legitimate experts at NASA, JPL, and the IAU, as well as many other governmentally funded agencies. Central to this issue is the deliberate promotion of opinion, and false statements, as scientific truth. Truth, which has been cleverly designed to label many researchers as discredited pseudo-scientists, especially if their work falls just outside the bounds of standard governmental criteria. This must not be tolerated any longer as it establishes a very dangerous precedent; one which ultimately could serve to restrict pure science to a repressive form of totalitarian control.

END PAPER


All material is copyrighted by THE MILLENNIUM GROUP and may not be used without their express permission.

RETURN TO PART ONE

RETURN TO PART TWO

RETURN TO PART THREE